Bitcoin acceptance could be faster than that of previous disruptive technologies such as vehicles and electric power, with global usage estimated to reach 10% by 2030, says a new report.
Blockware Intelligence, in its 8th June report, said that it reached this forecast by looking at historical adoption curves for nine previous disruptive technologies, including automobiles, electric power, smartphones, the internet, and social media, as well as the Bitcoin adoption rate since 2009.
“While disruptive technologies follow an exponential S-curve pattern, emerging network-based technologies continue to be adopted much quicker than the market anticipated.”
The analysis came at its projection by combining the average and an adjusted average of previous technology adoption curves and the growth rate of Bitcoin adoption.
It anticipates that “global Bitcoin acceptance will break past 10% in the year 2030” based on a statistic called Cumulative Sum of Net Entities Growth and Bitcoin’s predicted “CAGR of 60%.”
Blockware Intelligence is the research branch of Blockware Solutions, a Bitcoin mining and blockchain infrastructure business, so you would think it would be optimistic about adoption.
The intelligence unit believes Bitcoin adoption will achieve saturation sooner than many other technological innovations, considering direct monetary incentives to adopt, the present macro-environment, and the internet’s ability to expedite adoption growth.
“From a consumer standpoint, previous innovations offered convenience/efficiency-related incentives to adopt them: adopting vehicles allowed you to whiz past the horse and carriage, and adopting the cell phone allowed you to make calls without being tethered to a landline,” the paper notes.
“Bitcoin’s direct monetarily rewarded adoption generates a game theory in which adopting Bitcoin is everyone’s best response.”
Bitcoin, like the internet, cellphones, and social media, benefits from the “network effect,” which occurs as more people embrace the technology.
“For example, if you were the only person on Twitter, would it be of any service to you?” It wouldn’t work. These technologies become more valuable as more people utilize them.”
The authors of the Blockware research remarked that the model used to anticipate adoption rates were only conceptual at this point, that it was not intended to be used as investment advice or a short-term trading tool, and that it will be modified further. However:
“The general trend is evident; there is a high possibility that Bitcoin’s global adoption, and hence its price, will expand dramatically in the future.”
Several crypto investors and analysts, including executives from Ark Invest, Arcane Assets, AMDAX Asset Management, and M31 Capital, reviewed the report and model.
Over the last few years, cryptocurrency adoption has accelerated. According to data from TripleA, a global cryptocurrency payment gateway, global crypto ownership rates reached an average of 3.9 percent in 2021, with over 300 million crypto users globally.
From July 2020 to June 2021, global use of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies increased by 881 percent, according to blockchain data platform Chainanalysis. It discovered that Vietnam, out of the 154 countries studied, had the highest cryptocurrency adoption, followed by India. (Suggested Reading: The Indian Crypto Market Touched 90 Million Users in March 2022)
In April, cryptocurrency exchange Gemini released a survey that indicated that crypto adoption soared in 2021 in countries including India, Brazil, and Hong Kong, with more than half of respondents from the 20 nations polled stating that they began investing in crypto in 2021.